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LA rents have fallen to their lowest point in four years, and the episode ties the drop directly to a shrinking pool of renters as ICE raids ramp up across Los Angeles alongside population loss and new housing supply. For the first time in years, Los Angeles renters are seeing prices move in their favor.
Key Takeaways
- Median asking prices in the LA region have fallen to their lowest point in four years, with the median pegged around $2,167.
- LA County’s population shrank by about 28,000 people.
- Vacancy rates climbed to 5.3%, the highest level since 2021.
- The episode frames the drop as basic supply and demand: fewer renters chasing the same housing.
Why are LA rents falling to a four-year low?
LA rents are falling because demand has thinned while supply has grown, a straightforward supply-and-demand shift. Median asking prices across the region have dropped to their lowest point in four years, turning what long felt like a landlord’s city into something closer to a renter’s market.
The episode argues the ICE raids are a critical part of that demand reduction, alongside voluntary population loss and a wave of new multi-family construction. Multiple summaries now describe LA rents at a four-year low, which the episode says signals a meaningful shift rather than a one-month anomaly.
How do deportations affect rent prices?
The core argument is that removing people removes demand. The episode’s thesis is that deporting thousands of people who had to live somewhere frees up housing units and loosens a tight market.
The framing is explicit supply and demand: if you take a component of demand out of a stretched market, prices ease. The narrator argues this affects entry-level housing most, the segment he says was often occupied by those now leaving, whether voluntarily or through enforcement, a dynamic he contrasts with Seattle’s rental market rules.
Who knew that if you deported thousands and thousands of criminal illegal aliens who have to live somewhere, that if you deport thousands of them, rents might go down.
What do the population and vacancy numbers show?
The demographic data backs the shift. LA County’s population shrank by about 28,000 people, a relatively small share of the region but enough to loosen a market that had been stretched tight.
As residents left or doubled up, vacancy rates climbed to 5.3%, the highest level since 2021. In a market as tight as LA, that increase is enough to push landlords to cut asking rents or offer concessions because fewer people are chasing the same pool of housing.
Is new construction also driving prices down?
Yes, added supply is part of the picture. The region’s multi-family housing inventory has expanded to the point where many one- and two-bedroom units are now listed for far less than at the peak, with the median pegged around $2,167.
The episode explains the inelasticity of real estate: it takes so long to plat, permit, and build housing that units often arrive after the original demand has moved on. Los Angeles permitted thousands of multi-family units during a period of high demand, and those units are now coming to market just as the population dips, a pattern echoed in coverage of California’s housing glut.
Are all neighborhoods getting cheaper?
No, the drop is uneven. The episode notes the Pacific Palisades neighborhood is still seeing large increases, which it attributes to homes lost in the wildfire tightening that submarket.
Data from the San Fernando Valley shows some subregions declining while higher-end areas hold up. The pattern described: neighborhoods with more expensive rents saw fewer departures, so those areas kept rising while lower-cost areas softened. Some renters are fielding discounts while others still chase rising prices.
Why does the episode say mainstream media downplays this?
The episode argues the media emphasizes vacancies, population loss, and new construction while avoiding the deportation angle. The claim is that outlets frame the cause as oversupply and people leaving, without connecting it to enforcement reducing demand.
The narrator’s contention is that the same residents protected from ICE raids were competing for the same entry-level housing, and that acknowledging this undercuts a political narrative. He extends the point to local rules, RSO caps, and new tenant protections that further limit rent increases, while comparing LA’s trajectory to real estate distress in cities like Portland.
Frequently Asked Questions
How low have LA rents fallen?
Median asking prices in the LA region have fallen to their lowest point in four years, with the median cited around $2,167 in the analysis referenced.
How much did LA County’s population change?
LA County’s population shrank by about 28,000 people, which the episode says was enough to loosen a very tight rental market and push vacancy to 5.3%.
Is the rent drop the same everywhere in LA?
No. Higher-end areas and the Pacific Palisades are still seeing increases, while lower-cost neighborhoods and some San Fernando Valley subregions are where prices are softening.
If enforcement, population loss, and new supply are all pushing LA rents down at once, which factor do you think matters most, and will the trend hold? Let us know in the comments.
Related Coverage
- LA Mayor Karen Bass Blames ICE Raids as Los Angeles Burns Under Failed Leadership
- Los Angeles Cash Assistance for Illegal Immigrants After ICE Raids: Policy Madness or Compassionate Response?
- California Wildfires Devastate Housing MarketβRents and Prices Skyrocket!
- California Pays Rent for Illegal Immigrants Too Afraid to Work After ICE Raids
Full Episode Transcript
Read the full transcript of this episode
He’s running. He’s running. He’s running. He’s running. He’s running. Go, go, go. Here in this video, you can see what appears to be several Border Patrol agents in tactical gear. >> A first-hand look at ICE raids ramping up across Los Angeles. Well, they’re Then Thursday, ICE conducting what they call roving patrol consensual encounter apprehensions. Taking several people into custody in the parking lot here near several street vendors. This man determined to be a US citizen, while others whose immigration status is unclear, ran from ICE agents and were apprehended on the street. >> There have been several in June at other Home Depot locations and businesses across the Southern California.
>> Don’t sign nothing. Don’t sign nothing. They got to thank you. We witnessed five apprehensions Thursday and are waiting to learn if they had criminal records or not. >> Who knew that if you deported thousands and thousands of criminal illegal aliens who have to live somewhere, that if you deport thousands of them, rents might go down. Let’s get into it. Here we go. Love this title. LA rents suddenly plunge, leaving tenants cheering and rereading listings. Yay! Well, you know, you want to be happy for people, but this is one of those direct cause and effect type deals. Hey, you know, the illegals got to live somewhere.
They’re living in housing that you might normally live in, but they’re getting it subsidized from your taxpayers’ dollars, and you have to pay more in rent. But, you know, folks don’t seem to really get that. And they won’t get that after this. But, we’re going to read about it anyway, cuz we know what the real deal is, right? For the first time in years, Los Angeles renters are refreshing listings. Is that true? What I’m seeing is true? I’m seeing numbers move in their favor instead of creeping higher. Remember, demand and supply. They’re important. Median asking prices in the region, Los Angeles region, LA County, have fallen to their lowest point in 4 years.
Yay! This is not a shocker. This is not a shocker. This is literally just what are the numbers doing? Well, there’s fewer people. People are moving out of Los Angeles. You had the ICE raids. And I think the ICE raids have a massive massive impact not just on the people that are reported, but with family structure and that kind of thing. Right? Because everybody knows in Los Angeles, you’ve got entire neighborhoods with folks that aren’t necessarily legal and aren’t necessarily, shall we say, some of the most responsible or law-abiding citizens that are out there. So, in turn, turning what long felt like a landlord city into something closer to a renter’s market.
Who knew? ICE goes out, deport a bunch of people, and your rent drops. Weird. It’s just so strange, isn’t it? Isn’t that just crazy? The shift is modest, but real, and it’s colliding with new local rules that further limit how much many landlords can raise the rent. Well, they don’t need to raise the rent right now because so many people are literally leaving California, leaving Los Angeles, and then sometimes leaving against their will because ICE deports them. Result is a rare moment of leverage for tenants who have spent the past decade bracing for hikes, not cuts. I am seeing a market where some Angelenos are not only cheering lower prices, but also double-checking that the drop is not a typo before they hit schedule a tour.
Yeah, so strange, so strange. Yeah, you know, you’ve got all these people scrounging for the the housing, and then all of a sudden you take out a certain component of that supply, of that demand, and all of a sudden, voila, here we are. Isn’t that strange? Isn’t that just crazy? It’s a wacky world we live in, right? I’m being completely facetious, if you can’t tell. What makes this moment, this rent decrease, even more notable is that it’s not just a blip in one data set. Multiple summaries now describe LA rent prices as having fallen to a four-year low, signaling a meaningful shift in the city’s housing market, rather than a one-month anomaly.
So, here we go. Here’s our explanation. Vacancies. All right. Vacancies. Uh yeah, but that just means people left or there aren’t enough people to rent, or what have you. Population loss. Oh, now we’re getting somewhere. Just people voluntarily leaving? Yes. Yes, there’s some of that, of course. But also involuntarily. And that’s what I’m focusing on, right? Cuz that’s what we think about a lot, is what if we enforce the borders this whole time? What if all cities enforce their borders? Would there be lower rent? Let’s see. The criminal illegals got to live somewhere. But I’m just thinking out loud here.
They’ve got to live somewhere. So, even if they’re not paying for said rent, that’s not units that’s not housing that’s available to everyday people that are already hardworking and tax-paying citizens, they don’t get to rent that housing, and they certainly don’t get the US government to pay for it for them with said citizens’ citizens’ tax dollars. So, if you take out that component of the demand, and it frees up supply, Mhm. Yeah, you know, yeah. Behind the headline numbers is a quiet demographic story. LA County’s population shrank by about 28,000 people. Cool. Relatively small share of the region, but enough to loosen a market that had been stretched tight.
As residents left or doubled up, vacancy rates climbed to 5.3%. That is fairly significant for LA. That is significant. I mean, those numbers used to be down near nothing. The highest level since 2021. So, in a market as tight as LA, that kind of vacancy increase is enough to push landlords to cut asking rents or offer concessions. Cuz you got fewer people chasing the same pool of housing. And you got to remember, the people that that are impacted the most are the ones that can afford the least. And that is all of the entry-level housing that the criminal illegal aliens have traditionally occupied.
Because they don’t necessarily jump in and get a really good paying job, even though if they have federal work authorization, which many of them get. Because that is how Biden just basically handed them into the country. And I guys, go ahead. Just go ahead and do your thing. Get working. Drive that big rig. It should work out fine. You know how that one went, right? At the same time, region’s multi-family housing supply has grown. Okay, so here’s a component. Multi-family, there’s more multi-family. And you’ve got less demand. Okay, so we’re we’re really tweaking things here. Analysts who track the metros of the county’s apartment inventory has expanded to the point where many one and two-bedroom units are now listed for a lot cheaper than they were at the peak.
A trend highlighted in the same Angelinos focused analysis that pegs the median at 2167. Put together, population dip, higher vacancy, new supply, created a small but meaningful window where tenants can negotiate, walk away from bad deals, and in some cases move into neighborhoods that were out of reach just a few years ago. Now, here’s something interesting. Not every neighborhood is on sale, okay? So, we’ve got um the Pacific Palisades neighborhood is still seeing a huge increase. Well, that’s because all of their homes unfortunately burned down as Mayor Karen Bass was in Ghana. I wish I was making this stuff up.
And then Gavin Newsom was uh flitting about trying to work out how he was going to distance himself from the absolute cluster that was the Los Angeles response to the Pacific Palisades fire. Mhm, yeah. And now Mayor Karen Bass is basically uh getting in there and she’s changing out those reports to make the city of Los Angeles look less liable in the court of law because they are being sued 10 ways from Sunday. So, that split captures the new reality. Some renters are suddenly fielding discounts, while others are still chasing rising prices. So, you’ve got data from San Fernando Valley show that those subregions that are going down, that’s not happening there.
So, anywhere where you had more expensive rents or more upper end, you’re going to have fewer people being deported, hence the supply mhm yeah. That is I mean, it’s it’s math, right? It’s math. Policy guardrails, RSO caps, and new protections. You got a bunch of other stuff. The bottom line is is that you’ve got a a supply demand issue. And as hard as Los Angeles has worked at absolutely decimating the ability for landlords to actually control and do what they want with their own asset in America. Despite all of that, you know, you got a situation where a large enough swath of the population is either they’re involuntarily left or they’re being booted, and you’re having an impact.
You’ve got just enough of those people have left where you’ve got an impact. On top of you’ve got some multi-family that is You know, I talk about the inelasticity of real estate, meaning your demand rarely meets up to supply because by the time you go to develop land to permit the construction of said housing, get it up, get it built, get it sold to meet the demand for the for the community, oftentimes an entire cycle has gone by, real estate cycle has gone by, and then all of a sudden all that demand from all those new jobs coming in, they they they worked it out and they went somewhere else or they you know, living in joining communities that had a little bit more housing.
You know, the the amount of time it takes to develop not only a plat, but then build it out is such that oftentimes when all these plants where all this new housing comes, the demand isn’t there. And so that’s exactly what’s happening right now is people are like, “Well, there’s a lot of people in Los Angeles. Therefore, let’s go ahead and permit thousands and thousands of you know, multi-family housing units.” And they did. And now they’re building them. And now they’re coming to fruition. They’re coming to market. And oh, looking around, not as many folks out there. Interesting. Drop those rental prices.
So that’s that’s what you’ve got going on. So is it all Is this all because of ICE deporting criminal illegals? No. Is that a critical part? Yes. Is it a much more critical part that you will hear from mainstream media? Absolutely. Cuz they’re they’re not going to say much at all. They’re going to go, “We’ll just hope that the stupid people out there living in these Democrat-run communities won’t understand that they are competing with the exact same people that they’re protecting from ICE raids.” Well, that makes no sense at all, does it? No sense at all. Cuz Democrats hope that uh their constituents are stupid.
That is literally what they rely upon. You guys can all just coexist in the same community. Yeah, but they’re taking my rental unit housing. They’re taking my housing. Oh, no, they’re not. No, they’re not. Yeah, they are. And I’m paying for it. Government proceeds of my tax money. Oh, no. No. No. And that’s just that’s Yeah, 100%. 100%. But mainstream media isn’t going to go down that road. They’re going to go with the um oh, we’ve got oversupply of new construction inventory and also just people are leaving Los Angeles. I mean, right there. Why are people leaving Los Angeles? Why are people not flocking to the California dream?
Well, cuz it’s kind of turned into the California nightmare. But you know what? In 2028, I think you should vote for Gavin Newsom cuz he’s done such a stellar job within the state of California. You should vote for him for for president of of the United States of America. You know what also is funny? Over this past weekend after the uh Seahawks won the Super Bowl, I don’t I don’t really care about I don’t really care about sports, but yeah, go Hawks. All right. Was I saw a news article and it was pretty funny and it was Kamala Harris is going to run with AOC as her sidekick. Oh. This is just getting better and better.
I can’t wait. I can’t wait. That means that Gavin Newsom is not going to have either Kamala or AOC run as his vice president. What do you think? I think Gavin Newsom runs with this little gem from Dallas. In south side of Dallas, Jasmine Crockett. Jasmine Crockett. Gavin Newsom and Jasmine Crockett, what could go wrong? And then you got AOC along with Kamala Harris. 107 days, Kamala Harris. Oh, all good stuff. All good stuff. All right. Jeff for me. Thanks so much for being here. Love to have you subscribe. Hit that notification bell. I’ll see you in the next episode. Bye for now.
